It continues to bother me that almost every single sleeper worth throwing your lot behind is in the South region, but I guess life is all about playing the hand you're dealt and it's pretty obvious the Tournament is a metaphor for life. So within this somewhat perverse context, I decided to do my part for all the daughters entering their father's office pool, all of whom I'm sure read Cheddar Ted, and the lay people just looking to fit in for the next couple weeks.
Here are the top 40 teams based on the 2008 draw.
Teams 1-8 are the most likely to make the final four:
1) Memphis
2) UCLA
3) UNC
4) Georgetown
5) KU/Tennessee (interchangeable)
7) Texas*
8) Duke/Xavier (interchangeable)
*This is the biggest wild-card of the bunch. They played St. Mary's early in the season and won by 18, but that score is not telling since the game was played close until Texas pulled away at the end. If these teams meet in the second round, the stage is set for the Dalton rule to prevail (This rule, established over the course of my four year high school basketball career, basically states that it is nearly impossible to beat a hard-nosed opponent twice or three times in the same season, especially if the final match-up is in a play-off situation. The New York Giants are the most recent example of this rule). That said, Texas is dangerous and volatile. It's conceivable that they will just tear through the lower half of the bracket and give either Memphis or Pitt a run for their money.
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Teams 10-16 are basically a lock for the sweet 16 but all face very tough opponents to get into the Elite 8:
10) Pitt*
11) Clemson*
12) Louisville
13) Washington St.
14) Wisconsin
15) Stanford
16) Drake
*Both Pitt and Clemson are hard-nosed and balanced enough to make it to the elite eight or even the final four. In fact, Coach Bob Knight predicted PITT to win the whole thing and in my underdog pools, I have them in the final game, losing to Georgetown in what would definitely be a magnificent tribute to the most blue-collared conference in Division I sports: THE BIG EAST.
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Teams 17-26 are ranked based on talent alone. They are definitely dogs to make it to the sweet 16, but they have the talent to pull it off:
17) Marquette*
18) USC*
19) Notre Dame
20) UCONN
21) Butler**
21) MSU
22) West Virginia***
23) St. Mary's (see Texas explanation above)
24) Vandy
25) Indiana****
26) Oklahoma
*Marquette and USC are definitely the most likely teams of this milieu to make it to the sweet 16. Both had disappointing losses in their conference tournaments and both have something to prove.
**Even though Tennessee is a special team, Butler is dangerous and for a ranked team, remarkably underrated.
***West Virginia is back. Bob Huggins is almost inexplicably likable and Joe Alexander is channeling Kevin Pittsnoggle like some type of Mountaineer Soothsayer. This team could definitely beat Duke. The truth is, Arizona might be a tougher game (at least according to Greg Anthony's Bracket)
****Indiana is an interesting team. A classically wounded powerhouse, this team could bow out in the first round in a depressing display of no heart and teamwork or they could say, "This is for Kelvin Sampson" and make a crazy run to the final four. Remember that this is the team that gave UCLA its toughest regional game in last year's tournament – a second round bruiser that was basically a home game for the Bruins – and all they did was add a great freshman in Eric Gordon. The Hoosiers are talented as hell, but their mental instability is the ultimate double-edged sword. Ironically, they remind me a lot of the 2000 UNC team who came in as an 8 seed, knocked off an overrated 1 in Stanford, and made it to the final four.
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Teams 27-40 all are capable of first round wins, but are not totally exciting:
27) Purdue (I know nothing about this team)
28) Kent. St.
29) Miss St.
30) A & M
31) UNLV
32) Arizona
33) Davidson*
34) Gonzaga*
35) Miami
36) Baylor
37) Arkansas
38) BYU
39) Oregon
40) Kentucky
*It's unfortunate that these two likable squads face off in the first round and face an almost unbeatable opponent in the second round in Georgetown.
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This is list is obviously subject to change, and I feel that the NCAA Tournament selection committee did fans a great disservice by placing six extraordinarily dangerous teams – Memphis, MSU, Pitt, Marquette, Stanford and Texas – in the same bracket, but in the name of responsible punditry, my rankings, by obligation alone, took that into account.
Last thing – If you're in an auction or draft, stick to your guns and pick a cache of teams you can be proud of. Go for the hard-nosed teams with earnest coaches. They're the ones that are most dangerous in the tournament and also the teams you can feel happy about pulling for. Select the teams that match-up with the way you play the game, and throw your lot in with them. It will be your safety-belt in this rollercoaster of madness.
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